달빛영어

요약: 

인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하면 변화하는 환경에서도 정확도를 높일 수 있습니다.
(Combining human judgment and statistical models can improve accuracy in changing environments.)

주제: 

변화하는 환경에서 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하면 얻을 수 있는 이점.

(The advantages of combining human judgment and statistical models in changing environments.)

요지:

변화하는 환경에서는 일관성이 항상 미덕이 될 수는 없으며, 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하면 더 정확한 예측을 제공할 수 있습니다.

(In a changing environment, consistency may not always be a virtue, and combining human judgment with statistical models can provide more accurate forecasts.)

핵심 어휘

(1) Consistency: 일관성 

(It is not clear that consistency is always a virtue.)

(2) Changing environment: 변화하는 환경 

(In a changing environment, it might be advantageous to combine human judgment and statistical models.)

(3) Human judgment: 인간의 판단 

(One of the advantages of human judgment is the ability to detect change.)

(4) Statistical models: 통계 모델 

(Blattberg and Hoch examined this possibility by having supermarket managers forecast demand for certain products.)

(5) Past data: 과거 데이터 

(Statistical models based on past data.)

(6) Stable conditions: 안정된 상태 

(Statistical models deny stable conditions.)

(7) Novel events: 

새로운 사건들 

(Effects on demand of novel events such as actions taken by competitors or the introduction of new products.)

(8) Incorporate: 포함하다 

(Humans can incorporate these novel factors in their judgments.)

(9) Composite: 합성물 

(The composite forecast proved to be more accurate.)

(10) Accurate: 정확한 

(More accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone.)

내용 이해

(1) What is the main advantage of human judgment mentioned in the text? 

(문서에서 언급된 인간 판단의 주요 장점은 무엇입니까?)

(2) How did Blattberg and Hoch explore the possibility of combining human judgment and statistical models? 

(Blattberg와 Hoch는 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하는 가능성을 어떻게 탐구했습니까?)

(3) What is the limitation of statistical models in changing environments? 

(변화하는 환경에서 통계 모델의 한계는 무엇입니까?)

(4) How can humans incorporate novel factors in their judgments? 

(인간은 어떻게 새로운 요인을 판단에 포함시킬 수 있습니까?)

(5) What was the result of combining human judgments and statistical models? 

(인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합한 결과는 무엇입니까?)

* Suggested Answers

(1) The main advantage of human judgment mentioned in the text is the ability to detect change. 

(Reason: The text states that humans can adapt to changing environments.)

(2) Blattberg and Hoch explored the possibility of combining human judgment and statistical models by having supermarket managers forecast demand for certain products and then creating a composite forecast by averaging these judgments with the forecasts of statistical models based on past data. 

(Reason: The text describes their research method.)

(3) The limitation of statistical models in changing environments is that they deny stable conditions and cannot account for the effects on demand of novel events, such as actions taken by competitors or the introduction of new products. 

(Reason: The text highlights the limitations of statistical models in changing environments.)

(4) Humans can incorporate novel factors in their judgments by considering the effects of new events and adjusting their forecasts accordingly. 

(Reason: The text states that humans can incorporate novel factors in their judgments, unlike statistical models.)

(5) The result of combining human judgments and statistical models was that the composite forecast proved to be more accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone. 

(Reason: The text explains that the combination of human judgment and statistical models led to improved accuracy in forecasting.)

주요 문장

(1) Thus, in changing environments, it might be advantageous to combine human judgment and statistical models. 

(그렇기 때문에, 변화하는 환경에서는 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하는 것이 유리할 수 있다.) 

(This sentence introduces the main idea of the text and suggests that the combination of human judgment and statistical models can be beneficial in changing environments.)

(2) The composite ─ or average of human judgments and statistical models ─ proved to be more accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone. 

(합성물 - 즉, 인간의 판단과 통계 모델의 평균은 통계 모델이나 혼자 일하는 관리자들보다 더 정확하다고 입증되었다.)

(This sentence presents the result of the research, showing that the combination of human judgment and statistical models leads to improved accuracy in forecasting.)

The text discusses the advantages of combining human judgment and statistical models in changing environments. 

In such environments, consistency may not always be a virtue, and human judgment, which can detect change, can be beneficial when combined with statistical models. 

The research conducted by Blattberg and Hoch explored this possibility by having supermarket managers forecast demand for certain products and creating a composite forecast based on their judgments and statistical models. 

The composite forecast proved to be more accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone, highlighting the potential benefits of combining human judgment and statistical models in changing environments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TqhmX92P6U 

1. Watch This Video

2. Questions and Answers

Question 1: How do Monte Carlo simulations work?

• They model the probability of different outcomes in uncertain situations using random sampling.
• Multiple outcomes are generated, and the average result is calculated.

Question 2: Who uses Monte Carlo simulations?

• Common applications include portfolio management, investment planning, risk analysis, option pricing, and spare capacity planning.
• They are used in various fields, such as medicine, astrophysics, and even solving word puzzles.

Question 3: How do you run a Monte Carlo simulation?

• Set up a predictive model, identifying the dependent variable and independent variables.
• Specify the probability distribution of the independent variables, using historical data or expert judgment.
• Run simulations repeatedly, generating random values of the independent variables until a representative sample is gathered.

요약:

인간은 생존을 위한 조상들의 욕구 때문에 확실성을 좋아하며, 우리의 뇌는 불확실성으로부터 우리를 보호하도록 진화해 왔습니다.

(Humans like certainty due to our ancestors' need for survival, and our brains have evolved to protect us from uncertainty.)

주제: 

확실성에 대한 인간의 선호와 그 진화적 근거. (Human preference for certainty and its evolutionary basis.)

요지:

우리가 확실성을 선호하는 것은 다양한 위협에서 살아남아야 했던 조상으로부터 비롯되었으며, 우리의 뇌는 안전을 지키기 위해 불확실성을 식별하고 피할 수 있도록 진화해 왔습니다.

(Thesis Statement: Our liking for certainty stems from our ancestors who needed to survive various threats, and our brains have evolved to help us identify and avoid uncertainty in order to keep us safe.)

핵심 어휘

(1) Certainty: 확실성 (Human beings like certainty.)
(2) Ancestors: 조상들 (This liking stems from our ancient ancestors.)
(3) Evolved: 진화하다 (Our brains evolved to help us attend to threats.)
(4) Threats: 위협들 (Help us attend to threats, keep away from them, and remain alive afterward.)
(5) Danger-alert system: 위험 경보 시스템 (The danger-alert system continues to protect us.)
(6) Labeling: 꼬리표 달기 (Our brains labeling new, vague, or unpredictable everyday events and experiences as uncertain.)
(7) Generating: 생성하다 (Our brains then generating sensations, thoughts, and action plans.)
(8) Uncertain: 불확실한 (To keep us safe from the uncertain element.)
(9) Survival: 생존 (Ensured our survival to the present day.)
(10) Everyday events: 일상적인 사건들 (Our brains labeling new, vague, or unpredictable everyday events.)

내용 이해:

(1) Why do human beings like certainty?

(인간이 확실성을 좋아하는 이유는 무엇입니까?)

(2) What role did our ancient ancestors play in our preference for certainty? 

(우리의 확실성 선호에 고대 조상들이 어떤 역할을 했습니까?)

(3) How did our brains evolve to help us deal with uncertainty? 

(우리의 뇌는 불확실성을 처리하는 데 어떻게 진화했습니까?)

(4) What is the purpose of the danger-alert system in our brains? 

(두뇌의 위험 경보 시스템의 목적은 무엇입니까?)

(5) How do our brains react to new, vague, or unpredictable everyday events? 

(뇌가 새로운, 애매한 또는 예측할 수 없는 일상적인 사건들에 어떻게 반응합니까?)

* Suggested Answers

(1) Human beings like certainty because it helped our ancestors survive various threats, and our brains have evolved to protect us from uncertainty. 

(Reason: The text explains the connection between certainty and survival.)

(2) Our ancient ancestors needed certainty to survive alongside dangerous predators and poisonous plants, which led to our preference for certainty. 

(Reason: The text links our preference for certainty to our ancestors' survival needs.)

(3) Our brains evolved to attend to threats, keep away from them, and remain alive afterward by labeling new, vague, or unpredictable events as uncertain and generating sensations, thoughts, and action plans to keep us safe. 

(Reason: The text describes the brain's evolution to protect us from uncertainty.)

(4) The purpose of the danger-alert system in our brains is to protect us from uncertain elements by labeling them as dangerous and generating sensations, thoughts, and action plans to keep us safe. 

(Reason: The text explains the function of the danger-alert system in our brains.)

(5) Our brains react to new, vague, or unpredictable everyday events by labeling them as uncertain and generating sensations, thoughts, and action plans to keep us safe from the uncertain element. 

(Reason: The text describes how our brains process and respond to uncertain events.)

주요 문장

(1) Our brains evolved to help us attend to threats, keep away from them, and remain alive afterward.

(뇌가 위협을 주목하고 피하며, 그 후에 생존할 수 있도록 진화했습니다.)

(This sentence explains how our brains have evolved to deal with threats and uncertainty, emphasizing its role in human survival.)

(2) Our brains then generating sensations, thoughts, and action plans to keep us safe from the uncertain element, and we live to see another day. 

(그러면 뇌는 불확실한 요소로부터 우리를 안전하게 지키기 위해 감각, 생각, 그리고 행동 계획을 생성하고, 우리는 다른 날을 보게 됩니다.)

(This sentence describes the brain's response to uncertainty and how it helps us to stay safe and continue living.)

The text discusses human preference for certainty and its evolutionary basis, explaining that our liking for certainty stems from our ancestors who needed to survive various threats.

Our brains have evolved to help us identify and avoid uncertainty by attending to threats, keeping away from them, and remaining alive afterward.

The danger-alert system in our brains continues to protect us by labeling new, vague, or unpredictable everyday events as uncertain and generating sensations, thoughts, and action plans to keep us safe.

This preference for certainty has ensured our survival to the present day and continues to shape our reactions to uncertain situations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpPWmul6gVs 

1. Watch This Video

2. Questions and Answers

Question 1: What does Sapolsky's theory of Human Behavioral Biology suggest?

• All behaviors have a biological basis.
• They are a product of natural selection.

Question 2: What factors does Sapolsky's theory consider when explaining behavior?

• Neurons in the brain a moment before the behavior.
• Environmental triggers and hormones.
• Neuroplasticity and past experiences.
• Fetal life, genes, and culture.
• Human evolution and species development.

Question 3: Why does Sapolsky's theory imply that understanding behavior is complicated?

• Many factors contribute to behavior.
• A simple cause-and-effect explanation is usually not enough.
• We need to consider the full picture of an individual's life.

Question 4: What was Sapolsky's background and experience?

• Born in New York, interested in primatology since young.
• Studied baboons in Africa for 25 years.
• Taught behavioral biology at Stanford University.

Question 5: What advice does Sapolsky give for understanding others?

• Be careful and cautious before judging.
• Understand that humans are complicated.
• Consider the full context before making conclusions.

Question 6: Can we fully explain behavior without considering the full picture?

• According to Sapolsky, no.
• His theory argues that many factors contribute to behavior.
• Some people may still believe in a soul that takes decisions regardless of biology.