2023학년도 3월 고2 전국연합학력평가 문항분석 (30번)

 

 

 

요약: 

 

 

인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하면 변화하는 환경에서도 정확도를 높일 수 있습니다.
(Combining human judgment and statistical models can improve accuracy in changing environments.)

 

 

주제: 

 

 

변화하는 환경에서 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하면 얻을 수 있는 이점.

(The advantages of combining human judgment and statistical models in changing environments.)

 

 

 

요지:

 

 

변화하는 환경에서는 일관성이 항상 미덕이 될 수는 없으며, 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하면 더 정확한 예측을 제공할 수 있습니다.

(In a changing environment, consistency may not always be a virtue, and combining human judgment with statistical models can provide more accurate forecasts.)

 

 

 

핵심 어휘

 

 

(1) Consistency: 일관성 

(It is not clear that consistency is always a virtue.)

 

(2) Changing environment: 변화하는 환경 

(In a changing environment, it might be advantageous to combine human judgment and statistical models.)

 

(3) Human judgment: 인간의 판단 

(One of the advantages of human judgment is the ability to detect change.)

 

(4) Statistical models: 통계 모델 

(Blattberg and Hoch examined this possibility by having supermarket managers forecast demand for certain products.)

 

(5) Past data: 과거 데이터 

(Statistical models based on past data.)

 

(6) Stable conditions: 안정된 상태 

(Statistical models deny stable conditions.)

 

(7) Novel events: 

새로운 사건들 

(Effects on demand of novel events such as actions taken by competitors or the introduction of new products.)

 

(8) Incorporate: 포함하다 

(Humans can incorporate these novel factors in their judgments.)

 

(9) Composite: 합성물 

(The composite forecast proved to be more accurate.)

 

(10) Accurate: 정확한 

(More accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone.)

 

 

내용 이해

(1) What is the main advantage of human judgment mentioned in the text? 

(문서에서 언급된 인간 판단의 주요 장점은 무엇입니까?)

 

(2) How did Blattberg and Hoch explore the possibility of combining human judgment and statistical models? 

(Blattberg와 Hoch는 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하는 가능성을 어떻게 탐구했습니까?)

 

(3) What is the limitation of statistical models in changing environments? 

(변화하는 환경에서 통계 모델의 한계는 무엇입니까?)

 

(4) How can humans incorporate novel factors in their judgments? 

(인간은 어떻게 새로운 요인을 판단에 포함시킬 수 있습니까?)

 

(5) What was the result of combining human judgments and statistical models? 

(인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합한 결과는 무엇입니까?)

 

 

 

* Suggested Answers

 

(1) The main advantage of human judgment mentioned in the text is the ability to detect change. 

(Reason: The text states that humans can adapt to changing environments.)

 

(2) Blattberg and Hoch explored the possibility of combining human judgment and statistical models by having supermarket managers forecast demand for certain products and then creating a composite forecast by averaging these judgments with the forecasts of statistical models based on past data. 

(Reason: The text describes their research method.)

 

(3) The limitation of statistical models in changing environments is that they deny stable conditions and cannot account for the effects on demand of novel events, such as actions taken by competitors or the introduction of new products. 

(Reason: The text highlights the limitations of statistical models in changing environments.)

 

(4) Humans can incorporate novel factors in their judgments by considering the effects of new events and adjusting their forecasts accordingly. 

(Reason: The text states that humans can incorporate novel factors in their judgments, unlike statistical models.)

(5) The result of combining human judgments and statistical models was that the composite forecast proved to be more accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone. 

(Reason: The text explains that the combination of human judgment and statistical models led to improved accuracy in forecasting.)

 

 

 

주요 문장

(1) Thus, in changing environments, it might be advantageous to combine human judgment and statistical models. 

(그렇기 때문에, 변화하는 환경에서는 인간의 판단과 통계 모델을 결합하는 것이 유리할 수 있다.) 

(This sentence introduces the main idea of the text and suggests that the combination of human judgment and statistical models can be beneficial in changing environments.)

 

(2) The composite ─ or average of human judgments and statistical models ─ proved to be more accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone. 

(합성물 - 즉, 인간의 판단과 통계 모델의 평균은 통계 모델이나 혼자 일하는 관리자들보다 더 정확하다고 입증되었다.)

(This sentence presents the result of the research, showing that the combination of human judgment and statistical models leads to improved accuracy in forecasting.)

The text discusses the advantages of combining human judgment and statistical models in changing environments. 

 

In such environments, consistency may not always be a virtue, and human judgment, which can detect change, can be beneficial when combined with statistical models. 

 

The research conducted by Blattberg and Hoch explored this possibility by having supermarket managers forecast demand for certain products and creating a composite forecast based on their judgments and statistical models. 

 

The composite forecast proved to be more accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone, highlighting the potential benefits of combining human judgment and statistical models in changing environments.

 

 

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TqhmX92P6U 

 

1. Watch This Video

2. Questions and Answers

 

Question 1: How do Monte Carlo simulations work?

• They model the probability of different outcomes in uncertain situations using random sampling.
• Multiple outcomes are generated, and the average result is calculated.

Question 2: Who uses Monte Carlo simulations?

• Common applications include portfolio management, investment planning, risk analysis, option pricing, and spare capacity planning.
• They are used in various fields, such as medicine, astrophysics, and even solving word puzzles.

Question 3: How do you run a Monte Carlo simulation?

• Set up a predictive model, identifying the dependent variable and independent variables.
• Specify the probability distribution of the independent variables, using historical data or expert judgment.
• Run simulations repeatedly, generating random values of the independent variables until a representative sample is gathered.